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class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5de5\u4f5c\u62bd\u6837\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5c11\u6b21\u89c2\u6d4b\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u9700\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u51b3\u7b56\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5360\u6bd4\u3002\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u8ba9\u6240\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u89c2\u6d4b\u6b21\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u89c4\u5212\u5404\u6b21\u89c2\u6d4b\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u65f6\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5355\u4e00\u6d3b\u52a8\u5360\u6bd4\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<p>n \u2248 z\u00b2 \u00d7 p \u00d7 (1 \u2212 p) \u00f7 e\u00b2<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cn \u4e3a\u89c2\u6d4b\u6b21\u6570\uff0cp \u4e3a\u4ee5\u5c0f\u6570\u8868\u793a\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5360\u6bd4\uff0ce \u4e3a\u671f\u671b\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u9650\uff0cz \u4e3a\u6240\u9009\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4e34\u754c\u503c\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd1\u4f3c 95% \u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\uff0cz \u4e3a 1.96\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6b21\u6570\u5e94\u5411\u4e0a\u53d6\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684 p \u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u53d6 0.50 \u4f1a\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u9650\u4e0b\u5f97\u5230\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u3002\u5f53\u8bef\u5dee\u9650\u4e3a\u4e94\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5373 e = 0.05 \u65f6\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u5230\u9700\u8981 385 \u6b21\u89c2\u6d4b\u3002\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u89c4\u5212\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u901a\u7528\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b50\u7ec4\u90fd\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u76f8\u540c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u4e94\u201d\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u5fc5\u987b\u8bf4\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u7b49\u5f85\u5360\u6bd4\u4e3a 20%\uff0c\u8bef\u5dee\u9650\u4e3a\u4e94\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8303\u56f4\u5927\u7ea6\u662f 15% \u5230 25%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bef\u5dee\u9650\u662f\u8be5\u5360\u6bd4\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9 5%\uff0c\u5219\u4e0a\u4e0b\u5e45\u5ea6\u5404\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5e94\u56f4\u7ed5\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u548c\u6bd4\u8f83\u76ee\u6807\u89c4\u5212\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u603b\u4f53\u7b49\u5f85\u5360\u6bd4\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u8db3\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u5404\u4e2a\u73ed\u6b21\u3001\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u5ef6\u8bef\u6216\u5355\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u5de1\u67e5\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u805a\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u8003\u8651\u62bd\u6837\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u6bcf\u6761\u8bb0\u5f55\u90fd\u89c6\u4e3a\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u51b3\u7b56\u9700\u8981\u8bc6\u522b\u7ec6\u5fae\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6216\u6d89\u53ca\u5927\u989d\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5e94\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u91c7\u96c6\u6570\u636e\u524d\u8bf7\u62bd\u6837\u4e13\u5bb6\u5ba1\u6838\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a\u4ece\u6d3b\u52a8\u89c2\u6d4b\u6b21\u6570\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u503c\u5f97\u6539\u5584\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e00\u4e2a\u624b\u5de5\u88c5\u914d\u533a\uff0c\u56e2\u961f\u6000\u7591\u7269\u6599\u4e0d\u9f50\u5957\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f5c\u4e1a\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u5212\u5b9a\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u65f6\u6bb5\u5185\uff0c\u4ee5\u7b49\u6982\u7387\u62bd\u53d6400\u4e2a\u201c\u64cd\u4f5c\u5458\u2014\u65f6\u70b9\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u89c2\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b80\u5316\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u5404\u6b21\u89c2\u6d4b\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u4e14\u6bcf\u6b21\u89c2\u6d4b\u90fd\u80fd\u5f52\u5165\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8<\/th><th>\u89c2\u6d4b\u6b21\u6570<\/th><th>\u5360\u89c2\u6d4b\u603b\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u88c5\u914d\u4f5c\u4e1a<\/td><td>200<\/td><td>50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6362\u578b\u4e0e\u4f5c\u4e1a\u51c6\u5907<\/td><td>60<\/td><td>15%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u68c0\u9a8c<\/td><td>40<\/td><td>10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u7b49\u5f85\u7269\u6599<\/td><td>80<\/td><td>20%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5176\u4ed6\u5df2\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5ef6\u8bef<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u8ba1\u5212\u4f11\u606f<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5408\u8ba1<\/td><td>400<\/td><td>100%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>\u7b49\u5f85\u7269\u6599\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5360\u6bd4\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a80 \u00f7 400 = 20%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u5458\u603b\u5de5\u65f6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u4f4d\u64cd\u4f5c\u5458\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u73ed\u6b21\u4e2d\u90fd\u6070\u597d\u6709\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u5355\u9879\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u6b63\u6001\u8fd1\u4f3c\u53ef\u5f97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<p>95%\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u8bef\u5dee\u9650 = 1.96 \u00d7 \u221a[0.20 \u00d7 0.80 \u00f7 400] = 0.0392<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u7ea63.9\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u533a\u95f4\u4e3a16.1%\u81f323.9%\u3002\u5b83\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5047\u8bbe\u6210\u7acb\u65f6\u7684\u62bd\u6837\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u6db5\u76d6\u89c2\u6d4b\u65f6\u95f4\u5b89\u6392\u5b58\u5728\u504f\u5dee\u3001\u6d3b\u52a8\u5206\u7c7b\u9519\u8bef\u6216\u4e0b\u4e2a\u6708\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ec4\u5408\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u6837\u672c\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u6216\u6d3b\u52a8\u5360\u6bd4\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u6216\u4e00\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u91c7\u7528\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u7684\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Wilson\u533a\u95f4\u6216\u7cbe\u786e\u4e8c\u9879\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u79f0\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u89c2\u6d4b\u91c7\u7528\u5206\u7ec4\u6216\u52a0\u6743\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u80fd\u591f\u53cd\u6620\u62bd\u6837\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u6bd4\u8d77\u5c0f\u6570\u70b9\u540e\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff0c\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u7684\u73b0\u573a\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u7b49\u5f85\u7269\u6599\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u503c\u5f97\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u9996\u5148\u67e5\u660e\u76f8\u5173\u7269\u6599\u5957\u4ef6\u5728\u54ea\u4e2a\u73af\u8282\u51fa\u73b0\u7f3a\u4ef6\u3001\u7f3a\u5c11\u54ea\u4e9b\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u4e00\u9879\u88c5\u914d\u4f5c\u4e1a\u3002\u5206\u7c7b\u7ed3\u679c\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u6392\u67e5\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u539f\u56e0\u5219\u9700\u8981\u56e2\u961f\u7ed3\u5408\u76f8\u5173\u8bb0\u5f55\u6765\u67e5\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 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