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\u4ef6\u3002\u6709\u672a\u6ee1\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bb0\u5f55\uff1b\u5bf9\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u6d41\u5931\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8981\u660e\u786e\u6807\u6ce8\u4e3a\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002<\/li><li>\u8bc6\u522b\u4fc3\u9500\u3001\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u5408\u540c\u3001\u65b0\u54c1\u4e0a\u5e02\u548c\u4ea7\u54c1\u505c\u4ea7\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4fdd\u7559\u539f\u59cb\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u8bb0\u5f55\u8c03\u6574\u5efa\u6a21\u6570\u636e\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n<p>\u5c06\u6574\u7406\u540e\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u6309\u65f6\u95f4\u7ed8\u56fe\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u4fdd\u6301\u5e73\u7a33\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba2\u5355\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8f83\u957f\u95f4\u9694\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5224\u65ad\u54ea\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u503c\u5f97\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u9700\u6c42\u7531\u4e0a\u5c42\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u5355\u72ec\u505a\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u76f8\u5173\u9700\u6c42\u5e94\u901a\u8fc7\u7269\u6599\u6e05\u5355\u548c\u7269\u6599\u9700\u6c42\u8ba1\u7b97\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91c7\u8d2d\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u76f8\u4e92\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u6839\u636e\u9700\u6c42\u7279\u5f81\u9009\u62e9\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u54c1\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u3002\u5148\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u518d\u5224\u65ad\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u5426\u6539\u5584\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>\u9700\u6c42\u60c5\u51b5<\/th><th>\u5efa\u8bae\u4ece\u4f55\u5165\u624b<\/th><th>\u9700\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u4ec0\u4e48<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a<\/td><td>\u8fd1\u671f\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u6cd5\u6216\u7b80\u5355\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5<\/td><td>\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7a97\u53e3\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u5e73\u6ed1\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u63a9\u76d6\u771f\u5b9e\u53d8\u5316<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u9700\u6c42<\/td><td>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u6bd4\u5b63\u8282\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\uff1b\u91c7\u7528\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b<\/td><td>\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u5b89\u6392\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u6570\u91cf\u6216\u4ea7\u54c1\u8303\u56f4\u662f\u5426\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf<\/td><td>\u80fd\u523b\u753b\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5e26\u8d8b\u52bf\u9879\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6a21\u578b<\/td><td>\u589e\u957f\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u5728\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4ea7\u54c1\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u6210\u719f\u671f<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53ef\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u5173<\/td><td>\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u5408\u9002\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b<\/td><td>\u53d1\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u786e\u5b9e\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4fe1\u606f<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u8bb8\u591a\u65f6\u6bb5\u9700\u6c42\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u5076\u5c14\u624d\u6709\u8ba2\u5355<\/td><td>\u95f4\u6b47\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Croston \u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5<\/td><td>\u6574\u4e2a\u8865\u8d27\u5468\u671f\u5185\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u80fd\u5426\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65e0\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5468\u6b21<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1<\/td><td>\u53ef\u6bd4\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cfb\u7edf\u6536\u96c6\u6574\u7406\u7684\u9500\u552e\u56e2\u961f\u548c\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u5224\u65ad<\/td><td>\u4e0a\u5e02\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u4ea7\u54c1\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u80fd\u591a\u5feb\u4ece\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u53cd\u9988\u5e76\u5438\u53d6\u7ecf\u9a8c<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>\u7b80\u5355\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u8d4b\u4e88\u8fd1\u671f\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u5f62\u5f0f\u5e76\u4e0d\u523b\u753b\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u3002Croston \u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u975e\u96f6\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u53ca\u5176\u51fa\u73b0\u95f4\u9694\u6765\u5904\u7406\u95f4\u6b47\u6027\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u6cd5\u6d88\u9664\u4e0b\u4e00\u7b14\u8ba2\u5355\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bf4\u660e\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u6cd5\uff1a\u5047\u8bbe\u6700\u8fd1\u4e09\u5468\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5206\u522b\u4e3a 80\u3001100 \u548c 120 \u4ef6\u3002\u91c7\u7528\u4e09\u5468\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0b\u5468\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9884\u6d4b\u503c = (80 + 100 + 120) \u00f7 3 = 100 \u4ef6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6ede\u540e\u4e8e\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4e09\u4e2a\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u53ea\u80fd\u6f14\u793a\u600e\u4e48\u7b97\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u9002\u5408\u8be5\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5c06\u5019\u9009\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff1a\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\uff1b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5219\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u6bd4\u5b63\u8282\u65f6\u6bb5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u51ed\u501f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5916\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u6216\u5bf9\u8fd0\u8425\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6539\u5584\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9760\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u9ad8\u6df1\u7684\u540d\u79f0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u4f7f\u7528\u4fc3\u9500\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u63d0\u4f9b\u5207\u5408\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u3002\u82e5\u7528\u9884\u6d4b\u5f53\u65f6\u5c1a\u4e0d\u53ef\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4f18\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u53ef\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u67d0\u79cd\u5173\u8054\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u51ed\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5c31\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u8be5\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u7279\u5b9a\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u9500\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u7eb3\u5165\u4e1a\u52a1\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u7559\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u65e0\u6cd5\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u5ba2\u6237\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u5ba3\u5e03\u505c\u5de5\uff0c\u7ecf\u9500\u5546\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u589e\u8bbe\u7f51\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u67d0\u6b3e\u4ea7\u54c1\u5373\u5c06\u66ff\u4ee3\u65e7\u578b\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u4fdd\u7559\u53ef\u67e5\u770b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c06\u6bcf\u9879\u4e1a\u52a1\u8c03\u6574\u5355\u72ec\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u6ce8\u660e\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u9002\u7528\u65f6\u6bb5\u3001\u539f\u56e0\u3001\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u548c\u590d\u6838\u65e5\u671f\u3002\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u8c03\u6574\u91cf\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5148\u6838\u5b9e\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u8c03\u6574\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u91cd\u590d\u8ba1\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u672a\u6765\u67d0\u5468\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a 100 \u4ef6\u3002\u9500\u552e\u56e2\u961f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e00\u4f4d\u65b0\u5ba2\u6237\u5c06\u5e26\u6765 20 \u4ef6\u989d\u5916\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4e14\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u9700\u6c42\u5c1a\u672a\u8ba1\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u73b0\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u6216\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u8bc4\u5ba1\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u6b64\u53d8\u4e3a 120 \u4ef6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5ba2\u6237\u53ea\u662f\u5c06\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u8f6c\u79fb\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u76f8\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u90a3\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u8fd9\u6b21\u8f6c\u79fb\u5168\u90e8\u8bb0\u4e3a\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u590d\u76d8\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u989d\u5916\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\u3001\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u54ea\u4e2a\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5de5\u8c03\u6574\u662f\u5426\u6539\u5584\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\uff1f\u6301\u7eed\u6bd4\u8f83\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u4fdd\u7559\u90a3\u4e9b\u786e\u5b9e\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u8c03\u6574\uff1b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53cd\u590d\u8ba9\u9884\u6d4b\u504f\u4e8e\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5219\u8981\u67e5\u660e\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u65b0\u54c1\u4e0a\u5e02\u6216\u91cd\u5927\u5408\u540c\uff0c\u5e94\u4fdd\u7559\u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5408\u7406\u7684\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5e76\u8bb0\u5f55\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u89c4\u5212\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7edf\u8ba1\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u7528\u5b83\u4eec\u8bc6\u522b\u54ea\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u4f1a\u968f\u60c5\u666f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9884\u7559\u7269\u6599\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u73ed\u6b21\uff0c\u6216\u63a8\u8fdf\u786e\u5b9a\u6210\u54c1\u5907\u8d27\u5b89\u6392\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u6309\u5b9e\u9645\u51b3\u7b56\u6240\u9700\u7684\u63d0\u524d\u91cf\u8861\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u6bcf\u6b21\u53d1\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u4fdd\u5b58\u5176\u53d1\u5e03\u65e5\u671f\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u671f\u95f4\u3001\u7269\u6599\u548c\u7248\u672c\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u660e\u786e\u540e\uff0c\u5e94\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u5f53\u65f6\u5fc5\u987b\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e1a\u52a1\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7248\u672c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0e\u4e34\u8fd1\u4ea4\u4ed8\u65f6\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u4fee\u8ba2\u7248\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u9009\u62e9\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8fdb\u884c\u5386\u53f2\u56de\u6d4b\u3002\u53ea\u7528\u67d0\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u65f6\u70b9\u4e4b\u524d\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5bf9\u6240\u9700\u7684\u672a\u6765\u65f6\u6bb5\u4f5c\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u4fe1\u606f\u622a\u6b62\u65f6\u70b9\u5411\u524d\u63a8\u8fdb\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6eda\u52a8\u9884\u6d4b\u8d77\u70b9\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u65b9\u5f0f\u80fd\u591f\u68c0\u9a8c\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u907f\u514d\u5c06\u672a\u6765\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u6cc4\u6f0f\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u793a\u4f8b<\/h3>\n\n\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u8981\u8bc4\u4f30\u67d0\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u56db\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u5468\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u4e0b\u8868\u6bcf\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u5728<strong>\u5bf9\u5e94\u76ee\u6807\u5468\u4e4b\u524d\u56db\u5468<\/strong>\u53d1\u5e03\u5e76\u4fdd\u5b58\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6709\u7b26\u53f7\u8bef\u5dee\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u51cf\u53bb\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u6570\u8868\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>\u76ee\u6807\u5468<\/th><th>\u5df2\u4fdd\u5b58\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c<\/th><th>\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42<\/th><th>\u6709\u7b26\u53f7\u8bef\u5dee<\/th><th>\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u7b2c 1 \u5468<\/td><td>110<\/td><td>100<\/td><td>+10<\/td><td>10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u7b2c 2 \u5468<\/td><td>110<\/td><td>120<\/td><td>\u221210<\/td><td>10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u7b2c 3 \u5468<\/td><td>110<\/td><td>80<\/td><td>+30<\/td><td>30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u7b2c 4 \u5468<\/td><td>110<\/td><td>100<\/td><td>+10<\/td><td>10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5408\u8ba1<\/td><td>440<\/td><td>400<\/td><td>+40<\/td><td>60<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u5206\u522b\u4ece\u4e0d\u540c\u89d2\u5ea6\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u7ec4\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\uff08MAE\uff09= \u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u4e4b\u548c \u00f7 \u671f\u95f4\u6570 = 60 \u00f7 4 = \u6bcf\u5468 15 \u4ef6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p>MAE \u4ee5\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u5355\u4f4d\u8868\u793a\u5178\u578b\u8bef\u5dee\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bf4\u660e\u9884\u6d4b\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u504f\u9ad8\u8fd8\u662f\u504f\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p><strong>\u52a0\u6743\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee\uff08WAPE\uff09= \u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u4e4b\u548c \u00f7 \u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u603b\u91cf \u00d7 100 = 60 \u00f7 400 \u00d7 100 = 15%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u975e\u8d1f\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\uff0cWAPE \u8868\u793a\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u4e4b\u548c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u5468\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u90fd\u5728 15% \u4ee5\u5185\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6ee1\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 85%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u7b26\u53f7\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u5373\u504f\u5dee = \u6709\u7b26\u53f7\u8bef\u5dee\u4e4b\u548c \u00f7 \u671f\u95f4\u6570 = 40 \u00f7 4 = \u6bcf\u5468 +10 \u4ef6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6b63\u8d1f\u53f7\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u56db\u5468\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u603b\u91cf\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u591a\u4e86 40 \u4ef6\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u603b\u91cf\u7684 10%\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u504f\u9ad8\u4e0e\u504f\u4f4e\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5728\u6c47\u603b\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u4e92\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ec5\u51ed\u504f\u5dee\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad\u8bef\u5dee\u5927\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u56db\u884c\u6570\u636e\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u6307\u6807\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6784\u6210\u5145\u5206\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u5e94\u5f00\u5c55\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u6eda\u52a8\u56de\u6d4b\uff0c\u8986\u76d6\u4e0e\u8be5\u4ea7\u54c1\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u3001\u8ba2\u5355\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ca\u5176\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u6307\u6807\u8bef\u5bfc<\/h3>\n\n\n<p>\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee\uff08MAPE\uff09\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u5404\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u5206\u522b\u9664\u4ee5\u540c\u671f\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u4e3a\u96f6\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u65e0\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1b\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\u7a00\u758f\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b9c\u9ed8\u8ba4\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>WAPE \u53ef\u4ee5\u5305\u542b\u90e8\u5206\u9700\u6c42\u4e3a\u96f6\u7684\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u540c\u6837\u65e0\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u5206\u6bcd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u968f\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u6309\u4ef6\u6570\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u957f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e00\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u5e94\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u671f\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408 MAE\u3001\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u7b80\u5355\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u4ea7\u54c1\u65cf\u7684\u6c47\u603b\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a9\u76d6\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u67d0\u4e2a\u578b\u53f7\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u578b\u53f7\u5374\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u770b\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u91cd\u70b9\u68c0\u67e5\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u5ba2\u6237\u670d\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u9020\u6210\u9ad8\u989d\u5e93\u5b58\u6216\u5360\u7528\u5173\u952e\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6ca1\u6709\u901a\u7528\u7684\u5408\u683c\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u540c\u6837\u662f 15 \u4ef6\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4ef7\u901a\u7528\u96f6\u4ef6\u548c\u5e93\u5b58\u5468\u8f6c\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u6210\u54c1\u603b\u6210\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5e94\u7ed3\u5408\u7f3a\u8d27\u4e0e\u8fc7\u5269\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3001\u8865\u8d27\u5468\u671f\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b9\u6848\u6765\u8bc4\u4ef7\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7f13\u51b2\u91cf\u5e94\u6839\u636e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u7b56\u7565\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u5728\u6bcf\u9879\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u91cf\u4e0a\u52a0\u4e0a MAE\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \u5c06\u9884\u6d4b\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u751f\u4ea7\u51b3\u7b56<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u8bc4\u5ba1\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u5bf9\u5ba2\u6237\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u91cf\u5219\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u72ec\u7acb\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u5df2\u786e\u8ba4\u8ba2\u5355\u3001\u53ef\u7528\u5e93\u5b58\u3001\u5df2\u6709\u751f\u4ea7\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u9884\u8ba1\u5165\u5e93\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e0c\u671b\u4fdd\u7559\u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u4e0d\u8981\u91cd\u590d\u8ba1\u7b97\u540c\u4e00\u4efd\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a 120 \u4ef6\uff0c\u5df2\u786e\u8ba4\u8ba2\u5355\u8986\u76d6\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u7684 70 \u4ef6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6309\u7167\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u540c\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u51b2\u51cf\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u88ab\u8ba2\u5355\u8986\u76d6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5c31\u5269\u4e0b 50 \u4ef6\u3002\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u4e3a 120 \u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f 190 \u4ef6\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8de8\u65e5\u671f\u6216\u8de8\u9700\u6c42\u7c7b\u522b\u51b2\u51cf\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u518d\u5047\u8bbe\u73b0\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u6210\u54c1\u4e3a 30 \u4ef6\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u671f\u672b\u4fdd\u7559 10 \u4ef6\uff0c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u5f85\u5165\u5e93\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u4e3a\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9 120 \u4ef6\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u751f\u4ea7\u91cf\u5e94\u4e3a<strong>100 \u4ef6\uff1a120 + 10 \u2212 30<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u5e93\u5b58\u548c\u5b8c\u5de5\u4ea7\u54c1\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u76f8\u5e94\u9700\u6c42\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\u53ef\u4f9b\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/skyplanner.ai\/zh-hans\/%e8%b5%84%e6%ba%90\/master-production-schedule\/\">\u4e3b\u751f\u4ea7\u8ba1\u5212<\/a>\u7528\u4e8e\u5236\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5177\u4f53\u7269\u6599\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u53ef\u7528\u65e5\u671f\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/skyplanner.ai\/zh-hans\/%e8%b5%84%e6%ba%90\/mrp-a-brief-guide\/\">\u7269\u6599\u9700\u6c42\u8ba1\u5212\uff08MRP\uff09<\/a>\u5219\u8ba1\u7b97\u5df2\u6279\u51c6\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u6848\u6240\u9700\u7684\u7269\u6599\u548c\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd8\u662f\u5e93\u5b58\u7ed3\u4f59\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u5de5\u5382\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u4ea7\u80fd\u6309\u65f6\u5b8c\u6210\u751f\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9\u6279 100 \u4ef6\u4ea7\u54c1\u6bcf\u4ef6\u9700\u8981 0.2 \u673a\u65f6\uff0c\u53e6\u52a0\u4e24\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u51c6\u5907\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5173\u952e\u8bbe\u5907\u5171\u9700\u6295\u5165<strong>22 \u5c0f\u65f6<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u53f0\u8bbe\u5907\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u5df2\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\u8fd8\u9700\u8981 20 \u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8981\u6c42\u5b8c\u5de5\u7684\u65e5\u671f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u53ea\u6709 40 \u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u62df\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u603b\u8d1f\u8377\u4e3a 42 \u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u5f25\u8865\u4e24\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u7f3a\u53e3\u3001\u91c7\u7528\u7b26\u5408\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u6216\u8c03\u6574\u67d0\u9879\u751f\u4ea7\u627f\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u4e0d\u8981\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u8bbe\u5907\u8d1f\u8377\u4e0d\u8d85\u9650\uff0c\u5c31\u5c06\u5ba2\u6237\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u8c03\u5230 110 \u4ef6\u3002\u5e94\u4fdd\u7559\u5e76\u6e05\u6670\u5448\u73b0\u9700\u6c42\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u51b3\u4f9b\u5e94\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7528 SkyPlanner \u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b9\u6848\u5b89\u6392\u751f\u4ea7<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u5316\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4f60\u8c03\u6574\u751f\u4ea7\u627f\u8bfa\u65f6\uff0c\u6392\u7a0b\u8c03\u6574\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u53f0\u8bbe\u5907\u548c\u591a\u4e2a\u8ba2\u5355\u3002\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6279\u6b21\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u540e\u7eed\u5de5\u5e8f\u3001\u76f8\u5173\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u4ea4\u4ed8\u65e5\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p><strong>SkyPlanner APS \u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\u7eb3\u5165<a href=\"https:\/\/skyplanner.ai\/zh-hans\/%e8%b5%84%e6%ba%90\/production-scheduling\/\">\u4e00\u4efd\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u6392\u7a0b<\/a>\u3002<\/strong>\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u73ed\u6b21\u3001\u64cd\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u3001\u5de5\u5e8f\u53ca\u5176\u65f6\u957f\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u548c\u9501\u5b9a\u529f\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u8ba1\u5212\u3002SkyPlanner \u7684\u667a\u80fd\u6392\u7a0b\u5f15\u64ce Arcturus \u6839\u636e\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u3001\u7b26\u5408\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u5de5\u5e8f\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u6392\u7a0b\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u7518\u7279\u56fe\u89c6\u56fe\u4f1a\u5c55\u793a\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u987a\u5e8f\u548c\u5b8c\u5de5\u65e5\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u62df\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u8fd9\u6279 100 \u4ef6\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u80fd\u5c06\u673a\u52a0\u5de5\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u5176\u5de5\u827a\u8def\u7ebf\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u5e8f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u7528\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\u8854\u63a5\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u7ecf\u6279\u51c6\u7684\u73ed\u6b21\u8c03\u6574\u6216\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u53d8\u66f4\u80fd\u5426\u8ba9\u4efb\u52a1\u6309\u9700\u5b8c\u5de5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u624b\u5de5\u534f\u8c03\u6bcf\u4e00\u53f0\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u8bbe\u5907\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u961f\u5217\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u542f\u7528\u8003\u8651\u7269\u6599\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u6392\u7a0b\u540e\uff0cArcturus \u4f1a\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f00\u5de5\u65f6\u95f4\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5e93\u5b58\u53ca\u540e\u7eed\u5230\u8d27\u7269\u6599\u7684\u53ef\u7528\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u91c7\u8d2d\u9884\u8ba1\u4ea4\u4ed8\u65e5\u671f\u8868\u793a\u9884\u8ba1\u53ef\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\uff1b\u786e\u8ba4\u6536\u8d27\u540e\uff0c\u5e93\u5b58\u624d\u4f1a\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7269\u6599\u6216\u524d\u5e8f\u5de5\u5e8f\u5c1a\u672a\u5c31\u7eea\uff0c\u4ec5\u6709\u8bbe\u5907\u7a7a\u95f2\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f00\u5de5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u8865\u8d27\u51b3\u7b56\u4ecd\u5e94\u7531\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u8ba1\u5212\u6d41\u7a0b\u6216 ERP \u7ba1\u7406\u3002SkyPlanner \u4e0d\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u81ea\u52a8\u751f\u6210\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e3a\u4f60\u521b\u5efa\u6216\u901a\u8fc7\u96c6\u6210\u4f20\u5165\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4efb\u52a1\u6392\u7a0b\u3002<strong>SkyPlanner \u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u5f00\u653e\u7684 REST API \u4e0e\u4efb\u4f55 ERP \u6216 MES \u96c6\u6210<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u7559\u7ba1\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6539\u5584\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6267\u884c\u5b89\u6392\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u9700\u6c42\u53d8\u5316\u603b\u662f\u5e26\u6765\u4eba\u5de5\u6392\u7a0b\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u9009\u62e9 SkyPlanner \u7684\u7406\u7531\uff1a\u8ba1\u5212\u5458\u51b3\u5b9a\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e8b\u9879\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\uff0cArcturus \u5219\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0a\u7684\u4f5c\u4e1a\u987a\u5e8f\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u843d\u5b9e\u5230\u6392\u7a0b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u6392\u7a0b\u4e3a Fredman Operations \u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u6539\u53d8<\/h3>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/zh-hans\/%e5%ae%a2%e6%88%b7%e6%a1%88%e4%be%8b\/fredman-operations\/\">Fredman Operations<\/a> 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